How Emerging Technologies Evolve

For the purpose of our research, the Mack Center defines an “emerging technology” as" "a science-based innovation with the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing industry."

Emerging technologies can be "single technologies" such as fiber-optics or  , or "streams of technology" that converge to create a technological system such as the Internet.  Some areas of technological innovation such as "nanotechnology" or "genomics" have the potential to impact virtually all industries, in some way.

The power of emerging technologies to effect change is well-documented.  Take any area of business, and it's easy to find examples of emerging technologies that transformed an entire industry:  Robotics forever transformed how automobiles are manufactured, and greatly improved the consistency and quality.  The cellphone cut the phone cord and brought true mobility to personal and professional communications.  Mapping the human genome (as well as mice, rice and microbes) has opened a window on molecular structures and processes that have changed the nature of medical research.  Digital technology has transformed the photography, music, television and motion picture industries.  These are just a few examples.

How Technologies Evolve.  Many emerging technologies may seem like overnight breakthroughs but actually exist for long periods of time before bursting into widespread use.  Digital photography existed for more than a decade before catching hold in the market.   Fax machines were demonstrated a century before they became a "mass market" device.   The ubiquitous Internet spent a decade in the U.S. Defense (DARPA) and Education sectors (ARPA) before reaching the mass market.  

The trajectory of an emerging technology typically includes three stages: 1) scientific advance or breakthrough, 2) technical implementation (including testing), and 3) commercialization.

Our initial research focuses on the two transition points— the emergence of technology from basic research to implementation, and the commercialization of technology by lead markets. These are the stages where uncertainty and risk are greatest, traditional business practices are most likely to fail, and new or different practices are required.

When a technology moves from basic research to the implementation and testing phase, there are often many competing modalities. For example, we can see this in telecommunications, where new digital content may be delivered via high-speed phone technology, fiber optic cable and wireless satellite communications, and the dominant technologies are yet to be determined.

The second major transition point is where technologies move from the testing and implementation phase into commercialization. We tend to describe commercialization as the point at which one or more lead markets embraces an emerging technology.

The point at which a technology moves from implementation to commercialization often involves competing applications. 

For example, as the Internet began to be commercialized in the decade of the 90s, the applications for this technology system was at first difficult to predict, until entrepreneurs started demonstrating various applications that were then adopted by and diffused into mass markets (e.g. auto sales, news retrieval, electronic shopping, investing online, Internet auctions).  A few entrepreneurs did detect the "weak signals" coming from the government and education sector in their early use of the Internet and produced browsers, network technologies, servers and other enabling technologies to leverage the potential of the Net.

Technology Trends.  In the decade of the 1990s, we have seen technologies becoming increasingly complex.  More and more technologies are actually technological systems.

For example, gene therapy involves many different sciences (medicine, biology, chemistry) and robotics used in auto manufacturing includes computers, sophisticated sensors and advanced materials.  

We continue to see extensive convergence between previously separate disciplines (nanobiotechnology, bioinformatics) as streams of technology merge into broad technological "rivers."  

We've also begun to observe what Prof. Sid Winter calls  patent pyramids forming as new areas of intellectual property are staked out for technical, strategic and/or defensive purposes.  In a major conference on "Managing Knowledge Assets" a group of  distinguished speakers examined the impact of relatively new patent protection afforded to life sciences, software and business processes and some of the critical issues involved.  This report is available online (click here).   

The Special Case of BioSciences.  Scientists in government and industry have mapped the human genome, but turning genomics into "functional genomics" (i.e. using what we know about genetics to effect treatments and cures) remains a challenge. Groundbreaking progress has been made in molecular science (esp. how biological structures and processes function) and diagnostics (DNA analysis et. al.).  In most of these new life science technologies, which we call "BioSciences," the future is wide open and we expect significant technological progress to continue through the coming decade.  These innovations will impact many industries. 

To provide insight into these exciting changes that are now in progress or looming on the near horizon, the Mack Center has created a separate program to explore the future of biosciences, called the "BioSciences Crossroads Initiative."

Gene therapy researchers have been working tirelessly since the 1990s, but in 2003 the medical field is still waiting for the first commercial application of the basic premise (i.e. using a vector to deliver and effect gene expression to treat or cure a disease).  When the gene therapy is achieved, it will undoubtedly look like a "breakthrough" but the time, resources, investment, scientific research and discovery that gets us to this point will have been enormous.

Many "overnight innovations" evolved through sustained periods of development and may have existed in narrow vertical niches, in industry, government or education (observed by Prof. Dan Levinthal, et. al.).

Applying the ET Framework.  Many companies, including established market leaders, are caught off-guard by the speed with which new market entrants surge into their industries. This kind of industry disruption is a hallmark of emerging technologies...and one of the reasons this research program was established at Wharton, to assist industry decision makers in understanding these phenomena and identifying the new best practices and strategies that are required.

However, it is possible that future emerging technologies may be detected by scanning current vertical niches for clues to technologies that eventually may be adopted by lead or mass markets.

In most organizations, emerging technologies  require managers to develop new strategies to deal with conditions of high uncertainty and risk, as well as industry transformation and disruption.  ETs present special challenges to large corporations, that are required to make strategic decisions involving where to place bets, who to partner with, how to acquire new competences and much more.  

Since 1995, the Mack Center has designed and hosted an ongoing series of insight-building conferences that bring together academic experts form Wharton and other leading business schools, and senior decision makers from best practice companies.

Based on research by members of the Emerging Technologies Core Team in the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School.